• 06/24/2024

    Could CD4 Flip Blue?

    June 7, 2024
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    It's a crazy, unthinkable proposition, and it's a long way to November 5.

    Colorado's 4th Congressional District is R+13, and no Democrat achieved greater than 40% of the vote since 2010. That was the year the Republicans almost became a minor party in the state when the American Constitution Party beat them in the general by more than 20 points.

    That was a crazy year... is it less of crazy year than 2024?

    "Kaplan Strategies has released a new poll for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, showing a strong performance by Congresswoman Lauren Boebert in the upcoming Republican primary. The poll, conducted on May 31, 2024, surveyed 343 registered likely Republican voters and has a margin of error of ±4.3%. CO CD4 (06022024) with writeup"

    Kaplan Strategies Poll: Lauren Boebert Gains Momentum in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District
    Five-Thirty-Eight, Colorado Polls

    If Boebert is up by 35 points, the primary is over, and she will face Democrat Ike McCorkle in the general. The ambitious challenger threatens to flip CD4 blue; of course, the only available polling on a head-to-head between Boebert and McCorkle is internal polling by McCorkle's campaign. It laughably has him winning by 14 points.

    There is no universe in which a Democrat takes the district by 14 points, but this is no ordinary election year, and Boebert struggles with likeability issues.

    What about McCorkle by one point? Half a point?

    Historically, a blue CD4 is unlikely. That would be a national story following Ken Buck unexpectedly quitting his job earlier this year. The district comprises some of the most rural areas of the state and nearly a million voters, and it is the reddest district in the state.

    Still, there is a lack of candidate enthusiasm for Representative Boebert in CD4, with even most Republican voters resigned to vote for her rather than excited.

    Trump being on the ballot will turn out the base -- so Boebert is a likely lock -- but Democrats have a better shot in 2024 than they've had in over a decade.

    Don't take CD4 constituents for granted. Guard against complacency, get on the campaign trail, and turn out the vote.

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